Monday, 7 March 2011

Predictability

Christmas Carols are getting less predictable. Trendy new ones substitute traditional old(e) ones. Classic arrangements get upstaged by the avant-garde. TV Carols, on the other hand, are completely predictable. You can guarantee that Carol Vorderman will solve that maths problem quicker than you can say “detox”. And you can guarantee that Carol Kirkwood, no matter what meteorological disasters she informs you of, will do so with the brightest smile on the breakfast show. It’s worthwhile having a really complicated weather system (the stormy details of which therefore need a long time to expound) just to get a double dose of the pleasure with which she notifies you of your impending doom, even if her “Good morning” doesn’t take quite as many seconds now as when she first started showing us what a breath of fresh air really meant.

If only the actual content of the weather forecasts was as reliable. We’re planning a visit to Great Haywood for this Saturday. The first good clean of the Erin Mae’s living space, and the transfer of a deal of domestic equipment ready for spending some quality time with this latest addition to the family. Possibly even our first saunter out of the marina – an experimental cruise down to Tixall Wide and back would be brilliant! So what’s the weather going to be like? Will we just look at rain through the windows? Will the wind prevent us getting safely out and back? Accuweather.com – now there’s a name. 15 day forecasts, and they know about Great Haywood. Oh – 11 hours of rain predicted and a wind gusting to 25 knots. Not so good. Check again today. Now it’s just occasional rain and drizzle, for only 4 hours. Go to the BBC – they aren’t acquainted with Great Haywood, it seems, but they know about Stafford and Rugeley. Just white cloud for Rugeley, light rain for Stafford. Well, it’s all a bit more promising than yesterday’s Accuweather forecast, but who knows what it will actually be like?

So we’ll report back after the event. Assuming we get there, of course. No accidents on the way. No last minute change of plan. Nothing untoward to make people think we didn’t keep our word. For this Saturday, we’re aiming at a minimum of 50% predictability.

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